Mathematical Models of Road Safety in the European Union Using Crash Data Projections Estimates Future Safety Benefits on C-ITS.
European Union
Safety of Life Study
Summary Information
Cooperative Intelligent Transport Systems (C-ITS) have major potential to help improve road safety and decrease the number and the severity of accidents. The objective of this study was to explore the impact of three different technical solutions for C-ITS on European Union road safety over time from 2015 to 2040. The study evaluated the potential reduction in the number of fatalities resulting from the deployment of each technical solution. The study focused on two specific C-ITS use cases with high accident reduction potential that were on the European Commission’s list of priority C-ITS services, involving vehicle-to-infrastructure (V2I) and pedestrian/cyclist to vehicle (V2P) communications: (i) red signal violation/intersection safety, and (ii) Vulnerable Road User (VRU) protection.
METHODOLOGY
The three different communication solutions considered in this study to assess the potential benefits from the two use cases were specifically: (1) LTE-PC5: Communication solution that used direct-mode communication between vehicles, road users and infrastructure, independent of any cellular network, (2) LTE-Uu cellular network-based communications interface, and (3) Wi-Fi technology that supported vehicle-to-vehicle (V2V) and V2I communications. The study sought stakeholder input to help define the two use cases and to develop modelling assumptions. Stakeholders included 5GAA members covering a wide range of companies from the automotive, information and communications technologies industries as well as other European C-ITS experts. Using projected data and a time-series model, the number of fatal accidents in Europe that could be avoided with the use of C-ITS solutions was estimated. For each technology, high (with faster retrofitting/deployment speed) and low (with lower retrofitting/deployment speed) scenarios were estimated.
FINDINGS
- The potential benefits could result in preventing between 3,932 and 8,774 deaths across the European Union by 2040, depending on whether the high case or low case assumptions were considered.
- The aggregated results for both use cases showed that the LTE-Uu high scenario exhibited the highest benefits in terms of the number of avoided fatalities and serious injuries.
- By 2040, the number of fatalities and serious injuries avoided with the use of the LTE-Uu solution was estimated to reach 114,066, compared to 90,380 for LTE-PC5, and 27,144 for the Wi-Fi solution.
